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Prediction for CME (2024-07-29T13:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-29T13:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32317/-1
CME Note: Wide CME visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is the M8.7 flare peaking at 2024-07-29T12:55Z from AR 3762 with associated dimming, EUV wave, and opening field lines best seen in SDO AIA 193. The eruption is also visible in STEREO A EUV imagery. Arrival signature characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 1nT at 2024-08-01T16:47Z to 12nT at 17:33Z. There is a subsequent minor increase in solar wind speed from around 400 km/s to ~460 km/s at 17:00Z with an increase observed in density starting around 16:00Z. This weak interplanetary shock may be associated with the combined arrival of CMEs 2024-07-29T02:00Z, 2024-07-29T02:12Z, and/or 2024-07-29T13:25Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T16:47Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-08-01T23:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: B

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/17:33
Radial velocity (km/s): 871
Longitude (deg): 65W
Latitude (deg): 02S
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: The background solar wind in my version distorts the CME quite a bit

Lead Time: 66.28 hour(s)
Difference: -6.22 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2024-07-29T22:30Z

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